Nov 27, 2024, 05:53 AM ET
Week 4 of November’s autumn international series saw most teams play their final Test match of the year, with just Ireland and Australia to face off in Dublin on Friday.
It was a weekend of emphatic wins. Scotland ended Australia’s hopes of a historic Grand Slam with a clinical win in Edinburgh, while England’s losing streak ended as they thrashed Japan 59-15.
Ireland breezed past Fiji 52-17, while Wales suffered their 12th straight defeat, losing to the all-powerful Springboks. France and New Zealand capped off their campaigns with wins over Argentina and Italy, respectively.
It will leave many wondering what is in store for their country next year, but are those reactions irrational or legitimate? It’s time to judge.
Jump to:
England’s defence needs a complete rethink?
Australia doomed for British & Irish Lions tour?
Boks’ A and B teams could reach RWC semis?
Warren Gatland isn’t the issue at Wales?
Scotland can win 2025 Six Nations?
France are Ireland’s biggest rivals next year?
New Zealand in uphill battle to catch Springboks?
England’s defence needs a complete rethink
England finished their autumn internationals with a much-needed victory, snapping their five-match losing streak and ending the year with five wins from 12. There was some wonderful attacking intention against Japan, complete with Tommy Freeman’s wondrous pass to George Furbank, as England scored nine tries. But it is the two tries they conceded which should be a concern. Again, England’s paper-thin defence was carved open and their muddled philosophy left them exposed.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Borthwick’s post-match comments on Sunday suggest England will tweak rather than twist their defensive system. Regardless, it needs work. They were far too open and exposed during the autumn internationals.
Felix Jones brought in the blitz defence after he arrived following the 2023 World Cup. You could see it clicking with the players, and they pushed the All Blacks close in New Zealand over the summer. But since then, it has looked more porous under Joe El-Abd as he seeks to bring in his own philosophy after Jones quit in August.
England’s defence has been exposed at times this autumn David Rogers/Getty Images
“It’s just not quite clicking for them yet, it’s not far off, but how long do you give it? You’re not playing with each other week in, week out for the rest of the season to develop this,” ex-England international Ben Kay said on Sunday. Austin Healey was less diplomatic, calling it a “disaster.” The players themselves call it the “hammer.”
“When we get it right it’s very difficult, you have seen that the last three weeks we have put teams under pressure,” Marcus Smith said. For Borthwick, as he undertakes his own review of the autumn, fine-tuning England’s defence will be at the top of his to-do list, but it doesn’t look like there will be a radical overhaul.
“I think what the really impressive thing is how the players scramble and that’s one of the traits of the defence is we force a load of mistakes the opposition make,” Borthwick said.
“We know at times that they’ll get round or through but then scramble and make sure we look after each other out there and the players continue to do that.” – Tom Hamilton.
Australia doomed for British & Irish Lions tour
Australia faced their first true test against Scotland and were found wanting. Unable to penetrate Scotland’s blue wall, the Wallabies scored just one try a week after they ran in eight against Wales, while their defence was lacking starch. With Ireland to close out the year and the British & Irish Lions on the horizon, the loss to Scotland was a stark dose of reality for Australia.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
After two big wins over England and Wales to open their Autumn Nations tour, the bubble has certainly burst for Australia after they were left scrambling against a tough Scottish opponent. But all is not lost for the Wallabies, and there still remains plenty to play for against Ireland despite hopes of a historic Grand Slam coming to a crashing halt.
Noah Lolesio has become a fixture at flyhalf for the Wallabies during a promising autumn campaign Stu Forster/Getty Images
Let’s not sugarcoat it, the Wallabies’ shortcomings were exposed at Murrayfield. Most disappointing though were their defensive lapses. Yes, the pressure was piling on, but 34 missed tackles will never lead you to a Test-match victory. Despite these issues, we’ve witnessed enough over the last three weeks — and across the year — to see they have been marked improvements from a side that plummeted to absolute rock bottom just over 12 months ago.
While the attack struggled on Sunday, the Wallabies had scored a whopping 94 points across their opening two matches. Ddebutant Harry Potter’s try on Sunday was a well-worked piece of magic from a lineout. There were still plenty of points left out on the pitch, and they’ll be keenly aware of the need to be better next week.
Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i has made a strong first impression for Australia Getty
Meanwhile, Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i has shown he will play a key role in next year’s July series. The loss of Matt Faessler and Jeremy Williams late in the week was felt against Scotland, so too Fraser McReight’s absence after he was rested. Williams and McReight will likely return against Ireland.
“It is still pretty positive. What I’m hoping is that people do see it in context for next July, because I think we’re building a little bit of momentum,” Joe Schmidt said. — Brittany Mitchell.
Springboks’ A and B teams could reach Rugby World Cup semis
South Africa have used 51 players this year, handing out 12 debuts, and still won the Rugby Championship and went unbeaten in the autumn.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Boks’ strength in depth is surely the envy of world rugby and this year’s results — where they lost just two by a single point — marks them as the team(s) to beat.
The Springboks have built up incredible depth in recent years Paul Harding/Getty Images
In an interview with the BBC in November, Andre Esterhuizen gave a brilliant bit of insight into what they are trying to achieve. “The aim is to have the two best teams in the world, all in one squad,” Esterhuizen said. “We want to make it second nature for people slotting in, so if someone steps in, they can just slot in and play the same if not better than the other player.”
It’s a bold aim, but you can see they are nearly there. The Boks’ “B-Team” would still contain some world-class players, and Rassie Erasmus’ ability to swap players in and out of the first team without halting momentum is incredible. “I was worried at first about how the players will take the swapping, but we were honest with them at the beginning of the season, and they all bought into the plan, which is admirable,” Erasmus said after South Africa beat Wales 45-12.
There is likely to be more chopping and changing in the run-up to the 2027 World Cup, but it all bodes well for the Boks’ attempts at securing the three-peat. – Tom Hamilton.
Warren Gatland isn’t the issue at Wales
Welsh fans would have been hoping for their side to at least make it competitive against South Africa, just to claw back some respect. They were left wanting though, with Wales again on the end of a thumping defeat that saw them end the calendar year without a win for the first time since 1937.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The whole of the Welsh setup needs a shake-up. After a golden generation, the tail-off was always inevitable, but what it has done is show the shortcomings in the entire system.
Warren Gatland has suggested the possibility of moving into an upstairs role at the WRU where he can shape the game. This is something that should be looked into. Nigel Walker, the executive director of rugby, should be feeling the heat, but there’s no point sacking Gatland. He is one of the few who understands the limitations of the system, but can also find a way to fix the creaking wheel. So instead of dismissing him, the WRU should enlist his help and give him more power to fix it as they debate the autumn series in their review over the coming days.
Wales coach Warren Gatland is under pressure having not won a Test match this year Ian Cook – CameraSport via Getty Images
This year has been the nadir for Welsh rugby. Their run of defeats is the worst in their history, and this needs to be the lowest point possible. Saturday’s match showed up Wales’ shortcomings: a much-changed Springboks team had 963 caps, to Wales’ 339. From here, change needs to happen, a region needs to be dropped and pathways re-shaped.
“There needs to be some change,” Gatland said after the defeat. “I’ve gone into board meetings and spoken about us being courageous and bold with some of the decisions we potentially need to make to improve the game. I think there needs to be investment into the pathways, the academies and the Under-20 programme. That should be the lifeblood of the game in Wales. Since we disbanded the national academy in 2015, we’re probably a reflection of how the U20 programme hasn’t been as successful from that.
“There needs to be an agreement between the union and regions to put some positive steps in place and effect change. It’ll take some time. It won’t happen overnight.” — Tom Hamilton.
Scotland can win 2025 Six Nations
Gregor Townsend’s side finished with three wins from four in the autumn. The South Africa defeat was a little lob-sided, given how well Scotland played against the Boks, while the Fiji and Portugal results were foregone conclusions. So it was their match against Australia which determined whether the autumn was a success or not. And they delivered.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Scotland’s golden generation have an opportunity in this Six Nations to shake things up. But there will be no room for error. Townsend’s men were exceptional in their 27-13 win against the Wallabies, and if they carry forward that form into the Six Nations, then they have to target their first championship win since 1999. “It’s time to put our neck out there and do what we know we can do,” Blair Kinghorn said.
Scotland should be aiming for Six Nations victory in 2025 Stu Forster/Getty Images
The opportunities are running out for the likes of Finn Russell, and they have a group of players in impressive form and now’s the time to deliver. “The pressure is on us,” Darcy Graham said after the win over Australia. “It probably is one of the best Scotland teams in a generation. We need to win something. The pressure is on us. We’ve got world-class players everywhere. It’s just about doing something with that.” — Tom Hamilton.
France are Ireland’s greatest threat to Six Nations defence
France will be one of the happier teams at the conclusion of the year, having gone unbeaten in November with wins over Japan, New Zealand and Argentina. Les Bleus backed up their thrilling victory over the All Blacks with a stylish 37-23 win over Argentina to cap off a rollercoaster 2024.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Scotland can win the Six Nations, but France are unquestionably the favourites among those aiming to knock Ireland off their perch.
There is no doubt there is work to do for Fabien Galthié and his side, but the signs that they’re on their way back are clear. They have proven stars in Antoine Dupont, Thomas Ramos, Yoram Moefana and Gael Fickou, while 21-year-old winger Louis Bielle-Biarrey kicked on this month and proved a handful for opposition defences. He is a real livewire with genuine pace, scoring four tries in their three Tests this month. First-choice fly-half Romain Ntamack should also be back in the mix come Six Nations time having missed the autumn Tests through injury. For opposing sides, it is a frightening thought.
Louis Bielle-Biarrey has been in electric form for France Xavier Laine/Getty Images
Their forward pack also looked back to their menacing best. Lock Emmanuel Meafou has been forceful on both sides of the ball, while facing a front row of Uini Atonio, Peato Mauvaka, and Jean-Baptiste Gros will be a daunting challenge for all of the Six Nations sides.
“There is a lot of competition in this squad and it’s good for everyone. We had a weird year after the World Cup but for this series we had the best possible team of the moment,” Galthié said in the aftermath of the Argentina win.
Meafou added similar sentiments.
“We’re over last World Cup and our sights are on the next World Cup,” Meafou said post-match. “We’ve got our sights for that World Cup but it starts with these next few Tests in the Six Nations and we’ll take the three wins that we’ve had this November and we’ll celebrate that.”
A French side hungry for silverware and keen to prove any critics wrong is a dangerous prospect for Ireland and the chasing pack come early next year. — James Regan.
New Zealand in uphill battle to catch South Africa
It would be harsh to rule Scott Robertson’s first year in charge of the All Blacks a disappointment, with some gritty wins and plenty to like about their season, but there will be questions looming over the side during the southern hemisphere summer.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Springboks are now the clear benchmark in World Rugby, and having beaten the All Blacks in four straight matches there is work to do for New Zealand to catch their old rivals.
First, the positives. A superstar was unearthed this year in Wallace Sititi, who won World Rugby’s men’s breakthrough player of the year award on Sunday. The second-row combination of Scott Barrett and Tupou Vaa’i (with Patrick Tuipulotu providing impact off the bench) also developed into a real force by the end of the year. Cam Roigard returned from injury to establish himself a more than dependable first-choice scrum-half, which will come as a relief after the departure of Aaron Smith.
Beauden Barrett became the first choice at No.10 for New Zealand by the end of the year Aurelien Meunier/Getty Images
However, there are still some long-term problems for Robertson. Sam Cane will leave a void in the No. 7 jersey, and his retirement from international rugby will likely force a reshuffle in the back-row. Then comes the conundrum at fly-half. Damian McKenzie started the year as the preferred option to start, but by November, Beauden Barrett had re-claimed control of the team, with McKenzie coming off the bench. At 33 — even though he is a supreme athlete — the reality is Barrett is closer to the end than the beginning of his career.
No doubt Robertson will be dreaming of the return of his old friend Richie Mo’unga, who is playing in Japan and therefore ineligible for New Zealand. If he does not come back soon though, the No. 10 position will remain under the spotlight heading into next year. — James Regan.
Read more:
– RFU boss received £400k pay rise amid record losses, job cuts
– Watch: ESPN’s Tom Hamilton reacts to England vs. Japan
– The drive to win a Rugby World Cup three-peat binds the Springboks’ DNA
– Wallabies’ rose-tinted glasses dislodged as Grand Slam hopes shattered
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Author : rugby-247
Publish date : 2024-11-27 12:08:33
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