Warm water in the Caribbean could create a new tropical storm
Forecasters say there’s a high chance of a new tropical system in the first week of November.
PANAMA CITY– Tropical Depression Eighteen formed in the Caribbean Monday morning and is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael Monday as it continues to organize and move near Jamaica, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters say it will be a hurricane by the time it enters the southeast Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night.
Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeast United States during mid- to late week, forecasters said. The NHC shows Bay County outside of the cone of uncertainty as of Monday morning. The cone shows the most eastern edge of the cone in Pensacola, meaning direct impacts are unlikely for Panama City. The NHC models show landfall sometime this weekend.
Bay County has a low probability of seeing tropical storm-force winds within the next five days, according to the NHC. They predict those could be felt as early as Wednesday night into Thursday morning in the area. The probability and models will shift as the storm develops. AccuWeather’s models show Panama City receiving some tropical impacts by Sunday.
They also forecast 1-2 inches of rain in Bay County between Friday night and Saturday morning. The National Weather Service forecasts a chance of showers starting Tuesday night and into Friday.
In a Facebook post, the NWS Tallahassee forecasting office says that if the current forecast holds, Panama City could see increased rain chances as well as higher winds and seas. The only land impact expected is breezy conditions Thursday into Saturday.
At 9:30 a.m. Monday, single red flags were flying on Panama City Beach. A single red flag indicates the surf is high or there are dangerous currents, or both. Though you can still swim if there is a red flag, you should use extreme caution and go in the water only if you’re a strong swimmer. This could change as Tropical Depression Eighteen develops over the next several days.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration monitoring station in Panama City showed water levels slightly higher than predicted Monday morning.
The western Caribbean will see the heaviest rainfall over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week with 3 to 6 inches expected, and up to 9 inches in some areas, with potential for flooding and mudslides. The Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba are under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Patty moved near the Azores on Sunday and was expected to dissipate away from land. The NHC is also watching an area of low pressure near the northern Leeward Islands that could develop in a few days.
There are no threats today to land on the U.S. mainland and hurricane strikes in November remain rare.
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The next names in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Rafael and Sara.
Here’s what’s out there as of 7 a.m. Monday, Nov. 4:
Will Tropical Depression Eighteen become Tropical Storm Rafael? Is a hurricane heading toward Florida?
The Caribbean waters are warm enough for tropical development, even this late in the season. The system is expected to become a tropical depression soon, the NHC said.
What happens next depends on the wind shear, or disruptive breezes, that have been keeping tropical development low the last few weeks, and a dip in the jet stream over a thousand miles away.
“If that jet stream dip pushes far enough to the east, it will tend to scoop up the tropical feature and possibly draw it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into South Florida,” AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. “But, if the jet stream dip lags to the west, the tropical feature may push into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far to the west as Louisiana or Texas.
“There’s also the possibility it continues due westward and diminishes over southern Mexico,” he said.
Where is Tropical Depression 18?Location: About 195 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, about 400 miles southeast of Grand CaymanMaximum Sustained Winds: 35 mphPresent movement: North at 9 mphMinimum central pressure: 1003 MB
At 10 a.m. EST, the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 76.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and forecast to continue for the next few days.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Wednesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
Who is likely to be impacted by Tropical Depression Eighteen?
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by this evening and are possible in central Cuba on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.
Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days.
Watches, warnings issued ahead of Tropical Depression Eighteen
Here are the latest watches and warnings issued for areas threatened by Potential Tropical Storm Eighteen:
Hurricane Warning:
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane Watch:
Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical Storm Warning:
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical Storm Watch:
Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
No watches or warnings have been issued for Florida at this time.
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Where is Tropical Storm Patty?
Location: 38.2N 18.0W, about 490 miles east pf the Azores
Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph
Present movement: East-northeast at 20 mph
Minimum central pressure: 996 MB
At 9 a.m. GMT, the center of Tropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 18.0 West. Patty is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Southeastern Atlantic: An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a few days. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time as it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.Stay informed. Get weather alerts via textWhen is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your cityWhat’s next?
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