High risk of tropical development brewing in Caribbean
AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva are monitoring the Caribbean, where a risk of tropical development is favorable from Nov. 2 to Nov. 5. Florida is cautioned to keep an eye out on this development.
AccuWeather
Odds are good we’ll be seeing at least a tropical disturbance by next week, and potentially a Tropical Storm Patty.
National Hurricane Center forecasters say there’s a 70% chance that a broad area of low pressure will develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea this weekend or early next week that could become a tropical depression. AccuWeather forecasters are more pessimistic, giving it a nearly 90% chance of development.
What they don’t know for sure is how strong it will get or where it will go. An area of high pressure expected to develop over the east coast of the U.S. next week could be strong enough to push it into Central America. As of Friday afternoon
“Should tropical development occur in the Caribbean Sea next week, there are two scenarios for movement: one toward Central America and another near the Yucatan Peninsula,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman said. “A more northern track would elevate the risk of impacts to the eastern Gulf coast, likely in the Nov. 6-11 time frame.”
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While the conditions that produced the devastating hurricanes Helene and Milton remain roughly the same, the area has been kept relatively quiet by high wind shear that kept showers and thunderstorms from organizing. But that’s ending soon, according to AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
“Next week, most of the wind shear will shift to the north of the Caribbean, and so it will basically create a pocket with high ocean temperatures, plenty of moisture and very low wind shear that will be favorable for tropical development,” DaSilva said.
The NHC is also tracking two other disturbances. Wind shear is expected to keep one in the northeastern Caribbean Sea from developing much further and it will probably be absorbed by the storm in the southwest after dumping rain on the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands.
As of Thursday, more than 5.5 inches of rain were reported in San Juan and in Naguabo on Friday, the 911 call center reported a car partly submerged in flood waters from the Rio Blanco, with a person trapped inside, according to the National Weather Service.
Another one far off in the north Atlantic that the NHC calls a “storm-force non-tropical low pressure area” has an increased chance of further subtropical development over the next few days as of the NHC’s 2 p.m. update but it’s moving to the east.
The 2024 hurricane season isn’t over yet, and November (and even December) storms are entirely possible. The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.
Here’s the latest advisory from the NHC as of 2 p.m., Friday, Nov. 1:
Tropical Storm Patty? Is another storm or hurricane heading toward Florida?
If Patty develops next week, there are two potential paths depending on conditions.
An area of high pressure expected to develop over the east coast of the U.S. next week may decide where this one is going. If it’s strong enough it could push the storm into Central America. If not, the storm could threaten the Florida coast.
November brings tropical development closer to Florida, US
Since 1851, three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida in November.
While the months earlier in the Atlantic hurricane season typically see tropical waves emerge off the African coast that give people plenty of advance notice as they move across the Atlantic, that’s not the case for the last month of the season.
“As we move into early November, the focus for tropical development shifts closer to the United States. Typically, the areas of focus late in the season are the Caribbean and off the Southeast coast,” DaSilva said.
Tropical depression could form late this week in Caribbean
Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 70 percent.What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean.
Slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
North Atlantic: A low pressure system located a few hundred miles west of the Azores has been producing increased convection near its center over the past few hours. Earlier satellite derived wind data depicted winds to storm-force mainly to the south of the the center.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional development and the system could become a subtropical or tropical storm as it moves generally eastward during the next few days. Interest in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system.
Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.Who is likely to be impacted?
Regardless of development, widespread downpours are expected over much of the Caribbean this week, AccuWeather said. Life-threatening mudslides and flash flooding can result, even in the unlikely event that a tropical depression or tropical storm does not develop.
Residents of the entire state of Florida up to the Carolinas should keep a close eye on the system currently in the Caribbean, DaSilva said.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued in FloridaStay informed. Get weather alerts via textWhen is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your cityWhat’s next?
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(This story was updated to add new information.)
Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY National Correspondent, Climate & Environment, contributed to this story.
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